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Friday, April 24th:
All information has been updated and posted. Yikes. Exhaustion. Enjoy the draft, friends. It's the best weekend of the year... Christmas in April. Remember: Rounds 1 and 2 are on Saturday. Round one will go from 4:00 p.m. until approx. 7:30... and round two should be over around 10:30 p.m. Rounds 3-7 will take place on Sunday.
Thank you for visiting this website for draft coverage... we are getting tremendous hits on the mock draft and top 100 page over the past several weeks. Improvements will be made to this site for next year... look for fall updates on the college football season and much more!
Friday, April 17
Update: The offensive value board has been posted. This is one of the culminating documents that I annually produce in preparation for draft day. The basic reasoning of the value board is to serve as a mini 'war room draft board' like the teams use to conduct their draft. Please check out the link above "Value Board - Offense"
Just ten days away now! Most teams are wrapping up their preparations this week. The draftboards are coming to a conclusion and the debates are heating up. Next week most of the NFL teams will be doing mock draft projections with the team personnel. They like to get a feel for the trends/possible scenario they will deal with on draft day. That way, the debate can be limited in team headquarters when the actual pick has to take place.
Time to fly.... putting in 8 hour work days and 8 hour 'draft' days is catching up to me... NFL Draft Weekend can't get here fast enough. Look for the Defensive Draft Valueboard to be added soon.
Monday, April 13
"Superbowl XLIV"
Please note, my mock draft projection is updated as of Easter Sunday - this is the last update before the final version, which will be posted 48 hours prior to the draft.
I'd like to use this moment to digress the blog for a day...
The draft is just around the corner and preparations are just about done... what about next year's regular season? How much effect does the NFL Draft have on next season and the twelve lucky teams that will make the playoffs? The answer is: Some. But in reality, those teams are pretty well set right now... the teams that will make the playoffs essentially have their rosters built. These players drafted in a few short days are more about the foundation of 2010, 11, and 12.
Every once in a while one of these rookies makes a significant difference. Whom shall it be this year? Will one of the wide receivers become a rock star in his first year? Does an Orakpo, Maybin, or Brown become a third down pass-rushing stud? Or, who's the next special kickoff return man like Devin Hester a few years ago? ... they can make a difference...
...But let's consider the rank of the NFL teams as we sit here today regardless of what is about to happen to them with the annual player draft. Here's my pre-draft rankings:
AFC NFC
1. New England 1. New York Giants
2. Pittsburgh 2. Atlanta
3. San Diego 3. Carolina
4. Tennessee 4. Arizona
5. Indianapolis 5. Dallas
6. Miami 6. Chicago
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[playoff teams ↑ ] [playoff teams ↑ ]
7. Baltimore 7. New Orleans
8. New York Jets 8. Green Bay
9. Houston 9. Philadelphia
10. Jacksonville 10. Minnesota
11. Oakland 11. Washington
12. Buffalo 12. Tampa Bay
13. Cincinnati 13. San Francisco
14. Cleveland 14. Seattle
15. Kansas City 15. St. Louis
16. Denver 16. Detroit
Friday, April 10
"2009 Draft Bust Possibilities"
On Wednesday this space was used to discuss the player at each position that I project as the best long-term prospect for NFL service...today the discussion goes the opposite direction. No team ever has a "bad draft" five minutes after the annual function raps up on Sunday evening... but after several years, one can reflect upon the past draft selections and evaluate how they did. Why wait! Here's five prospects that I would steer clear of on draft day... they're guys that concern me when attempting to project their National Football League development:
QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Comment: There are no franchise QB's in this year's draft. So what does the sports media do? They create one. Stafford should not be thought of in the way of 'Mr. Franchise QB'... he isn't a franchise guy and certainly isn't a #1 overall pick. For his sake, I hope the Lions pass on him... if Stafford ends up in Seattle, maybe he has a chance to be gradually developed. Nonetheless, the guy is very average at best and based on the hoopla, he has 'bust' written all over him.
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
Comment: Inconsistent, poor blocker, poor route-runner, average adjustment and awareness while the ball is in flight... Heyward-Bey is your typical workout warrior. Impressive in the gym and the workouts, but lacks NFL potential if you try to project what he did in college to the pro game. Will be selected in the middle of round one based upon his 4.30 40-time... However, some GM won't be too happy with himself three years from now upon looking back at the pick. Heyward-Bey is the opposite of Juaquin Iglesias (see below: Wednesday update)
DE Aaron Maybin, Penn State
Comment: Wasn't ready to leave college... quick as a cat, but too light, and not mature enough to be ready for NFL work ethic. Can he add 30 pounds to be a 4-3 DE and still keep the off-the-edge quickness? Would have been a top 7 or 8 player had he stayed in school another year.
LB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
Comment: Plain. Ordinary. Slow feet. Can't shed blockers. Will be an average NFL linebacker...would have been a good backer' in the 1960s or 70s, but this in the new millenium. True value is that of a 3rd or 4th rounder, but hype has pushed him up to a potential first-rounder.
DB D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
Comment: At 5'8 3/4", Moore would have to have 4.3-4.4 speed to be considered starting material in the NFL. He doesn't - he has a 4.53 40-time. He'll get beat (probably beat-down by 6'2" WR's) and doesn't appear (at least to me) to have adequate recovery speed. After getting jammed at the line of scrimmage, and then getting behind the receiver from the get-go, his lack of height will hinder him even more downfield. He's an average tackler, at best, and just doesn't fit into a lot of the NFL defensive schemes.
Wednesday, April 8
"17 Days and Counting"
Months and month are spent poking and proding at the prospects. Rankings and draftboards are being set and it all ends up lining up on draft day. But here's a look at the player at each position that will be the best NFL player - in many positions this won't necessarily be the superstar with fantastic upside that will be the one that has the best career. So here's the prediction on what guy at each position has that fantastic 10, 12, or 15 year playing career:
QB: Josh Freeman, Kansas State... has significant playing experience (compared to Sanchez particularly), a cannon arm, and the ability to keep from being tackled and moving about the pocket. Will out-perform the predictably inconsistent Matt Stafford. Projected pick: NY Jets at #17 overall
RB/FB: LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh... has the best feet of any of the RB's coming out - will be a 2nd round steal. Projected pick: Cleveland Browns at #36 overall
WR/TE: Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma... solid blocker, terrific hands, A+ route-runner, and a fantastic hidden gem in the 2nd round. Projected pick: Indianapolis Colts at #61 overall
OL: Jason Smith, Baylor... hopefully Detroit is smart enough to take this guy... it should be a no-brainer. He is a 8-10 year all-pro left tackle in the waiting. Projection: #1 overall
DL: Ron Brace, Boston College... The massive nose tackle / defensive tackle from Boston College screams of 'consistent.' Yet another 2nd round gem - Projection: Green Bay Packers at #41 overall
LB: Clint Sintim, Virginia... Tremendous versatility and experience... a graduate of the Al Groh collegiate system... Groh's players seem as "NFL-ready" as any in the league. Projection: New England at #34 overall
DB: Darius Butler, Connecticut... best overall defensive back coming out... teams will look foolish that he didn't go top-10 after a successful 12-year playing career. Projected pick: Miami Dolphins at #25 overall
Tuesday, April 7
"Trades"
The trades always make draft-day fun. This year's first round will see limited trade action early-on. The top ten picks are not ones that teams will be looking to obtain. The talent in the middle of round one is just as valuable as that of, say, pick number eight. Likewise, movement amongst teams in those early picks will be rare. However, look for interesting developments to happen throughout the middle of round one.
Teams are going to be stumbling over each other to attempt to get their hands on quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman. The Jets may want to make a move from #17 in order to secure one. They'll probably only have Freeman to chose from if Denver nabs USC's Sanchez with pick #12. In addition to the Jets, the Buccaneers (#19), Lions (#20), and Vikings (#22) are all in the market for a quarterback. Monumental trades could take place throughout the middle of round one.
Who are targets to move OUT of the middle of round one? Start with New Orleans. They sit at # 14 and only have four selections in the entire draft (first rounder, two 4th's and a seventh). Ouch. They will move-out if someone offers a good trade. The Saints are the team most likely to move down in round one.
Who will attempt to make moves up?
1. Denver (with two selections in round one)...they could utilize a small trade to move up from 18 to get someone like LB Maualuga.
2. New England - not only do they have extra picks, but listen to this: They have six of the top 97 picks.
3. The Eagles...they pick #21 and #28. They could move up slightly on one of those selections or else package both of them together and go the whole way up to 8-10.
What about round two - one item that always comes to mind: To any team picking at the bottom of round two, you better keep Carolina on speed-dial. Their first selection comes at #59. They will accept a trade to move down several spots if it meant picking up a pick. The Steelers would be a team that could very well target a trade with Carolina (64-->59).
MONDAY, APRIL 6
"Passing on Stafford & Sanchez"
Rest assured that the Lions cannot go forth without drafting a future signal-caller three weeks from now. When the draft kicks-off, the team will attempt to disassemble old practices and perennial stigmas for the new brand they wish to deploy in Detroit. Yes, a quarterback it will be... but not in round one. There is too much top talent that will be available not only at selection #1 of round one, but also the 20th selection. If the team is truly operating in a different mindset - a clear and precise set of foundations for which they will move into the future - they will utilize common sense (hello Matt Millen, how are you doing anyhow?) and take the best players, while letting the quarterback situation resolve itself later in the draft. Neither Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez will become Lions - not at pick #1 and not at pick #20...
The Lions will do the right thing - they'll draft offensive tackle Jason Smith from Baylor, the safest selection in this year's class, with the first overall selection. Smith will be followed by a continuation of this philosophy of drafting talent as it has been evaluated and placed on the team's war room draft board. It is likely to see an infusion of defense with pick #20 and the first pick in round two, #33 overall, as well. Cornerback Darius Butler or inside linebacker Rey Maualuga make a lot of sense at selection #20, while defensive linemen such as Peria Jerry, Michael Johnson, or Larry English would make a lot of sense at #33.
Consider the day-one draft-slate in Detroit: OT Jason Smith (#1); CB Darius Butler (#20); and DL Peria Jerry (#33)... Start the draft off with an overrated quarterback as the top pick, and the flow of their draft weekend never recovers. Rhett Bomar looks good as a "red-shirt quarterback selection" with the first pick in round three. That would be far better than first round bust potential Matthew Stafford or first-round mediocre-upside choice Mark Sanchez. Both work hard have their attributes... but the difference betweenthe #3 and #4 quarterbacks (Freeman or Bomar) is far less than the difference between the top offensive tackles, cornerbacks, and defensive linemen and the alternative choices the Lions would have later in the draft.
For the love of football, Detroit, please lose your old ways... find a new foundation... do the right thing.
Weekend Thoughts - April 4 & 5
"Three Weeks & Counting...The Drama Unfolds"
Jay Cutler gets traded, the Bears lose a pick, Denver gains a pick, the Giants gain team chemistry & lose the distraction known as Plex. All this within the past 48 hours, and all of this very relevant to the 09' draft that is just three weeks away.
Here's my reaction to some of the happenings:
* Regarding Denver: They lose. It's too bad for them because Cutler was the one that knifed them in the back (not visa-versa). They really didn't have a lot of alternatives for moving forward, but this sticks them in a precarious position. One might want to re-examine that Mike Shanahan firing during this time... does Pat Bowlen deserve this type of turmoil? Perhaps. Where's loyalty these days? Everyone knows Shanny is a top coach in the league... the Broncos might be getting what they deserve. About the draft in particular, Denver now picks #12 and#18.
* Regarding the Bills : WHAT! Why the Bills? Well, they are drafting #11, and might have won as much as anyone with the Broncos-Bears trade. The Bills will get tons of calls about trading out of that selection so a team can jump ahead of Denver.
* Regarding the AFC West: Hand San Diego the division now. It's over. Oakland?...Kansas City?...(gulp), and now Denver!??... Yep, it's over. Congrats, Phil Rivers.
* Regarding the Giants: Bravo! Bravo! ... umm, why did it take so long though? Hey Plex - see ya later, moron. The Giants are drafting in a fantastic location (#29) to nab a receiver in the first round, but don't assume they will in round one. The draft is as thick at that position as any year in recent memory. Who's that one guy they'll take at 29? Don't be surprised if it's Ohio State wideout Brian Robiskie. No, he's not a rock star, but he is: consistent, hard-working, smart, mature, reliable, and tough... or, the anti-Burress.
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